Friday, July 29, 2011

Rate Comparison vs. Wells Fargo & Bank of America

Professional Mortgage Source LLC - 4.375% with 0 Origination and Closing Costs of $0
Wells Fargo - 4.50%  with 1% Origination and Closing Costs of $2,000.00
Bank of America - 4.375% with 1.25% Origination and Closing Costs of $1100

Assumptions: Value=$400K Loan Amount=$300K Fico=740

Why spend the extra thousands of dollars in points and closing costs when we can do your loan and it will end up with Wells or B of A anyway.

Mortgage Market News for the week ending July 29, 2011

GDP Falls Short

Amid all the turmoil surrounding the US debt ceiling talks, weaker than expected economic data and increased concerns about Europe helped mortgage rates improve this week.

A lack of progress in the debt ceiling talks has left investors with a high level of uncertainty, causing a great deal of volatility in mortgage markets. The current debt ceiling will be reached soon, but this time around many lawmakers from both parties are reluctant to raise the limit without an agreement to control the deficit. The two parties have been unable to reach a compromise on spending cuts and tax reform, though. Investors doubt that lawmakers would actually allow the US to default on its debt, but the US is at risk of a downgrade of its credit rating if a credible fiscal plan is not passed. As this is uncharted territory, investors don't know how large the impact of a downgrade would be on bond markets.

Due to the economic troubles in Europe, the earthquake in Japan, and the rise in oil prices, investors knew that US economic growth during the first half of the year was slower than forecast at the beginning of the year. Still, Friday's report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was a shock. Second quarter GDP increased 1.3%, which was well below the consensus forecast of 1.8%. In addition, first quarter GDP growth was revised lower to just 0.4% from 1.9%. Fortunately, the consensus outlook is for faster economic growth during the second half of the year.
    Also Notable:
  • June Pending Home Sales rose 2%, New Home Sales fell slightly
  • Consumer Sentiment fell to the lowest level since March 2009
  • S&P cut the debt rating of Greece again
  • The Beige Book reported the pace of the economic recovery slowed in many regions

Week Ahead

The debt ceiling talks will remain in the spotlight next week, and an agreement could be reached at any time. The biggest economic report will be the important Employment data on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before the employment data, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will come out on Monday. Personal Income and Core PCE inflation will be released on Tuesday. ADP Employment, Factory Orders, and ISM Services are scheduled for Wednesday.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Rate Comparison vs. Wells Fargo & Bank of America

Professional Mortgage Source LLC - 4.50% with 0 Origination and Closing Costs of $0
Wells Fargo - 4.50%  with 1% Origination and Closing Costs of $2,000.00
Bank of America - 4.375% with 1.25% Origination and Closing Costs of $1100

Assumptions: Value=$400K Loan Amount=$300K Fico=740

Why spend the extra thousands of dollars in points and closing costs when we can do your loan and it will end up with Wells or B of A anyway.

Mortgage Market News for the week ending July 22, 2011

Debt Talks Drive Mortgage Rates

With few economic reports released this week, news of progress in talks to provide aid to troubled European countries and to raise the US debt ceiling had the most influence on mortgage rates. As the perceived risk of default in Europe decreased, investors retreated from the relative safety of US bonds, which pushed mortgage rates a little higher. The proposed deficit reduction in the debt ceiling talks was favorable for mortgage rates, however. The net result was little change in mortgage rates for the week.

European Union (EU) officials released a significant new plan for providing aid to EU member countries with debt problems. Thursday's announcement of a new aid package for Greece and an overhaul of the region's rescue fund reduced investor concerns that the debt problems will spread. In particular, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) will have the ability to make loans to European nations at lower interest rates than they could get on their own, easing the risk of default. After the news, investors reversed some of the recent flight to safety trade and returned to riskier assets.

Recent low yields for Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) indicate that investors have little doubt that the debt ceiling will be raised before the limit is reached on August 2. For bond investors, the big question has been to what degree lawmakers will tackle the budget deficit. Simply lifting the debt ceiling without meaningfully addressing the deficit would disappoint investors and be bad for bonds. By contrast, a serious attempt to bring the deficit under control rather than pushing the issue further into the future would likely cause yields to fall for two reasons. A smaller government deficit would mean a reduced supply of Treasury securities, resulting in lower yields, and less government spending would slow economic growth, reducing inflationary pressures. As a result, the amount of deficit reduction in debt ceiling negotiations could influence mortgage rates.
    Also Notable:
  • June Housing Starts rose 15% from May to the highest level since January
  • The Treasury will auction $99 billion in 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr securities next week
  • Gold prices rose to a new high above $1,600 per ounce
  • The Fed's Lockhart stated that there is a "very high" bar for the Fed to provide additional stimulus
Week Ahead
Beyond the debt ceiling talks, there will be a packed Economic Calendar next week. New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic growth, will come out on Wednesday, along with the Fed's Beige Book. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market, will be released on Thursday. Second quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic growth, Chicago PMI, and Consumer Sentiment are scheduled for Friday. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Rate Comparison vs. Wells Fargo & Bank of America

Professional Mortgage Source LLC - 4.375% with 0 Origination and Closing Costs of $0
Wells Fargo - 4.625%  with 1% Origination and Closing Costs of $2,000.00
Bank of America - 4.375% with .875% Origination and Closing Costs of $1455

Assumptions: Value=$400K Loan Amount=$300K Fico=740

Why spend the extra thousands of dollars in points and closing costs when we can do your loan and it will end up with Wells or B of A anyway.  We can close your loan in less than 30 days.

Mortgage Market News for the week ending July 15, 2011

Growing Uncertainty
 
During a week packed with economic data, Europe and the Fed took center stage in influencing mortgage rates. Uncertainty about the economic outlook caused a flight to relatively safer investments, and mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.

 
In June, stronger than expected economic data caused investors to raise their growth outlook, which was negative for mortgage rates. Last week's disappointing jobs report removed much of the optimism and raised the level of uncertainty this week. Other factors also contributed to the increased uncertainty. Investors grew significantly more concerned about the debt problems in Europe, particularly in Italy. There was also a lack of progress in the US debt limit talks. The desire for safer assets was evident this week in improved mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices, strong demand for the Treasury auctions, and higher gold prices.


When the FOMC Minutes from the June 22 Fed meeting were released on Tuesday, investors were surprised to see that Fed officials were open to the idea of additional Treasury bond purchases to boost the economy. Following the June 30 conclusion of the second round of bond buying, investors believed that a third round would be extremely unlikely. In his testimony to Congress, Fed Chief Bernanke elaborated that Fed officials want to keep all options open, including further stimulus, depending on the strength of the economy. Bernanke noted that the economy would have to falter significantly from its expected pace of growth for the Fed to add stimulus. What investors took from the Minutes and the testimony is that in the event of a downturn the Fed may be quicker to provide additional stimulus than previously thought.

Also Notable:
  • June Core CPI inflation increased at a 1.6% annual rate

  • The Fed's Rosengren described the June Employment report as "dismal"

  • Major credit rating agencies warned they might cut the rating of US govt debt

  • Gold prices rose to a new high above $1,580 per ounce



  • Week Ahead

    It will be a light week coming up. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday. Existing Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Leading Indicators and Philly Fed will be released on Thursday. Negotiations to raise the US debt ceiling and economic troubles in Europe will remain the focus next week.

    Friday, July 8, 2011

    Rate Comparison vs. Wells Fargo & Bank of America

    Professional Mortgage Source LLC - 4.50% with 0 Origination and Closing Costs of $0
    Wells Fargo - 4.625%  with 1% Origination and Closing Costs of $2,000.00
    Bank of America - 4.50% with 1.25% Origination and Closing Costs of $1455

    Assumptions: Value=$400K Loan Amount=$300K Fico=740

    Mortgage Market News for the week ending July 8, 2011

    Jobs Fall Short

    The main focus this week was the June Employment report. Rising expectations during the week pushed mortgage rates higher ahead of the report. When the Employment data came in far below expectations, though, mortgage rates improved significantly and ended the week a little lower.

    Against a consensus forecast of 125K, the economy added just 18K jobs in June, the lowest level since September 2010, and the figures from the prior two months were revised lower by 44K. The Unemployment Rate rose to 9.2% from 9.1% in May. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, were unchanged from May, below the consensus for a rise of 0.2%. In short, bright spots were hard to find.

    Following a series of stronger than expected economic reports in recent weeks, the Employment report was certainly a surprise. The question for investors is how much weight to place on this report in determining the economic outlook. Does this mean that the economy is recovering more slowly than previously thought? Or is it that the jobs data simply operates with a small lag? There is little doubt that the US economy slowed during the first half of the year, primarily due to rising oil prices and the Japanese earthquakes. The impact of these obstacles was expected to be temporary, and nearly all the economic data in recent weeks appeared to support this. This Employment report will certainly make investors more cautious about the pace of future economic growth, but they will not overlook the wide range of other data which suggests that growth is accelerating. With mortgage rates at such low levels, solid evidence of a sustained deterioration in growth likely will be needed for
      Also Notable:
    • The Unemployment Rate rose to the highest level since December 2010
    • As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates to fight inflation
    • The Treasury will auction $66 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week
    • Moody's cut Portugal's debt rating

    Week Ahead

    In a packed week, the most significant economic data next week will be the monthly inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, Retail Sales will be released on Thursday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic growth, will come out on Friday. The FOMC Minutes from the June 22 Fed meeting will be released on Tuesday. The Trade Balance, Import Prices, and Consumer Sentiment will round out the schedule. There will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

    Friday, July 1, 2011

    Rate Comparison vs. Wells Fargo & Bank of America

    Professional Mortgage Source LLC - 4.625% with 0 Origination and Closing Costs of $0
    Wells Fargo - 4.75%  with 1% Origination and Closing Costs of $2,000.00
    Bank of America - 4.625% with 1.125% Origination and Closing Costs of $1455

    Assumptions: Value=$400K Loan Amount=$300K Fico=740

    Why spend the extra thousands of dollars in points and closing costs when we can do your loan and it will end up with Wells or B of A anyway.  We can close your loan in less than 30 days.

    Mortgage Market News for the week ending July 1, 2011

    Stocks Up, Rates Up

    This week's economic news was nearly all positive, and the stock market posted a strong rally. Unfortunately, what's good for stocks is generally unfavorable for mortgage rates. Progress on the Greek aid package and stronger than expected US manufacturing data, along with the end of the Fed's bond buying program, combined to push mortgage rates higher this week.

    While the Fed made known months ago that its $600 billion quantitative easing program would end on June 30, investors have been uncertain what the impact would be. Since the program started, Fed purchases have accounted for roughly 85% of the total new Treasury issuance. The loss of this significant source of demand makes investors less willing to purchase Treasury securities, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), at what have been historically low yields. Yields had to rise to attract investors.

    Part of the improvement in mortgage rates in recent weeks was due to the economic troubles in Greece. Investors shifted to relatively safer investments such as US government guaranteed bonds, including MBS. This week, however, an aid package for Greece took a major step forward. Despite widespread strikes and demonstrations, the Greek government voted to adopt the new austerity measures required for Greece to receive the aid. With the successful vote, the short-term uncertainty decreased, and investors reversed the flight to safety, selling bonds and buying stocks.
      Also Notable:
    • April Pending Home Sales increased 8%, the strongest monthly gain since November 2010
    • May Core PCE prices were a tame 1.2% higher than one year ago
    • Jobless Claims have remained above the 400K level for twelve straight weeks
    • The Fed's Bullard suggested that Fed stimulus impacts the economy with a lag of many months
    • Week Ahead

      The biggest economic event next week will be the important Employment report on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before the employment data, Factory Orders will come out on Tuesday. ADP Employment and ISM Services will be released on Wednesday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday for July Fourth.