Mortgage Market News for the week ending May 27, 2011

Mortgage Rates Reach Low for Year

Many factors were favorable for mortgage rates this week. Weaker than expected economic data, strong results for the Treasury auctions, and renewed concerns about weaker European countries all helped mortgage rates end the week at the lowest levels of the year.

All of the major economic data released during the week was weaker than expected. First quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic growth, was unchanged at 1.8%. Most investors expected the figures to be revised higher to at least 2.0%. April Durable Orders fell 4% from March, which was the largest monthly decline since October 2010. Weekly Jobless Claims unexpectedly increased. These measures suggest reduced inflationary pressure, which is good for mortgage rates. In addition, the Core PCE price index confirmed that inflation remains very low.

Uncertainty in Europe also helped US mortgage rates improve. There is no clear solution to the debt problems of Greece, and the parties involved in aiding Greece disagree on what approach to take. European Central Bank (ECB) officials stated that Greece must adopt tough austerity measures to remain a member of the Euro zone. Greece has already sharply reduced spending, though, and further cuts will be difficult politically, increasing the likelihood of a default on Greek government debt. Investors also grew more concerned about similar problems in Spain and Portugal. Spending cuts or debt defaults are expected to lead to slower global economic growth.

Also Notable:
• The April Core PCE inflation index increased at a low 1.0% annual rate
• April New Home Sales rose 7% from March
• The Fed's Kocherlakota lowered his forecast for 2011 economic growth
• Oil prices remained near $100 per barrel, down from $115 per barrel a few weeks ago

Week Ahead The biggest economic event next week will be the important Employment report on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before the employment data, the Chicago PMI Manufacturing index will come out on Tuesday. The ISM Manufacturing index, ADP Employment, and Construction Spending will be released on Wednesday. Productivity and Factory Orders will come out on Thursday. ISM Services and Consumer Confidence will round out the schedule. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.

Mortgage Market News for the week ending May 20, 2011

Mortgage Rates Little Changed

Weaker than expected economic data helped mortgage rates decline to the lowest levels of the year early in the week. On Wednesday, though, a reminder that the Fed will eventually sell its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) helped to erase the improvement. These two influences offset each other, and mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged.

The economic data released this week fell far short of investor expectations almost across the board. The most significant report, April Industrial Production, was unchanged from March, which was well below the consensus forecast. Manufacturing output was hurt by a shortage of parts from Japan due to the earthquakes. The Index of Leading Indicators declined for the first time since June 2010. The housing sector data also showed weakness as Existing Home Sales, Housing Starts, and Building Permits all declined in April.

The FOMC minutes from the April 27 Fed meeting contained few surprises, but they highlighted the fact that the Fed's eventual return to more normal monetary policy will include both asset sales and rate hikes. The minutes gave no indication of the timing of any Fed tightening. Longer term, officials believe that the Fed's balance sheet should contain only Treasury securities, meaning that the Fed at some point will begin to sell its roughly $1 trillion portfolio of MBS. In order to disrupt the mortgage market as little as possible, officials said that the selling may be done over a period of many years, and any asset sales would be announced far in advance.

Also Notable:

The Philly Fed manufacturing index declined to the lowest reading since October 2010

The Fed's Dudley suggested that economic growth will pick up later in the year

The Treasury will auction $99 billion in 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr securities next week

Fitch lowered the rating for Greek debt again

Week Ahead Next week, New Home Sales will be released on Tuesday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic growth, will come out on Wednesday. Revisions to first quarter GDP will be released on Thursday. Friday will be the biggest day with Core PCE inflation, Personal Income, Pending Home Sales, and Consumer Sentiment. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Mortgage Market News for the week ending May 13, 2011

Little Change in Mortgage Rates

It was a volatile week for mortgage rates. Troubles in smaller European nations, mixed results for the Treasury auctions, and tame inflation data caused significant movements in rates during the week. These influences offset each other, though, and mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged.

Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data came in slightly higher than expected on Friday, mortgage rates improved after the news. April CPI increased 3.2% from one year ago, which was the highest annual rate in two and one-half years. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased at a 1.3% annual rate. While Core CPI remained well below the Fed's target range around 2.0%, it was up from 1.2% last month and 0.8% at the end of last year, meaning that the trend has clearly been moving higher.

Inflation is negative for mortgage rates, so the question is why mortgage rates remain at the lowest levels of the year despite rising inflation data. The likely answer is that investors expect that the majority of the increase in inflation has already taken place. Fed officials have maintained that they expect the inflationary effects of higher oil prices to be "transitory", and the recent drop in oil prices has supported the Fed's position. One year ago, oil prices were around $70 per barrel, but they averaged about $110 per barrel in April, an increase of more than 50%. So far in May, oil prices have averaged about $100 per barrel, and investors don't expect that oil prices will rise 50% over the next year. Meanwhile, wage growth, a major factor in inflation levels, has been minimal in recent months. For these reasons, current inflation expectations remain relatively low.

Also Notable: Week Ahead Next week, Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic growth, will come out on Tuesday. Housing Starts will also be released on Tuesday. The FOMC Minutes from the April 27 Fed meeting will come out on Wednesday. These detailed notes offer additional insight into the Fed's decisions. Existing Home Sales will be released on Thursday. Empire State, Philly Fed, and Leading indicators will round out the schedule. Weekly Jobless Claims fell sharply from the highest level since August last week April Retail Sales increased 0.5% from March, showing steady improvement Plosser stated that inflation and inflation expectations will determine future Fed policy S&P again downgraded its rating for Greece

Mortgage Market News for the week ending May 6, 2011

Mortgage Rates Improve Again

Weaker than expected data helped mortgage rates improve for most of the week, but Friday's Employment report then surprised to the upside, causing mortgage rates to give back some of the improvement. In the end, as they have for each of the last few weeks, mortgage rates finished the week a little lower.

Against a consensus forecast of 185K, the economy added 244K jobs in April. Revisions to data from prior months added another 46K jobs. The private sector added 268K jobs, which was the highest level since February 2006, and the gains were broad-based across a range of sectors. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly increased to 9.0% from 8.8% in March, as the labor force grew. When people begin to look for work, they are added to the labor force. Aside from the expected weakness in government jobs, this report was encouraging news for the labor market across the board.

Friday's Employment report particularly stood out in contrast to the much weaker than expected economic data released earlier in the week. Wednesday's ISM Services data, indicating the strength of the services sector, showed a sharp decline, and was far below the consensus forecast. Thursday's Jobless Claims report then showed a significant increase, which was also a big surprise to investors. Going forward, investors will be trying to determine whether the strong Employment report or the other weaker data better reflects the current strength of the economy.

Also Notable:
• Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to the highest level since August
• As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates
• Oil prices dropped sharply, falling below $100 per barrel during the week
• The Treasury will auction $72 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week

Week Ahead The most significant economic data next week will be the monthly inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, Retail Sales will be released on Thursday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Import Prices and the Trade Balance will round out the week. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.